ISTANBUL

As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, the war in Gaza and American support for Israel have emerged as pivotal issues, especially in swing states where the Muslim vote could prove decisive.

In the first part of Anadolu's “Gaza Effect on the US Elections” series, the impact of the new Gaza movements on the US elections and the effect of undecided votes are analyzed.

Discontent with current US foreign policy has led to increased political mobilization among Muslim American voters, many of whom are dissatisfied with both major political parties. According to a report by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), 78% of Democrats support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, while 91% of Muslim voters in swing states say a lasting cease-fire would make them more likely to vote for a candidate in the November 2024 election.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in April 2024 revealed widespread dissatisfaction with US foreign policy, with 55% of Americans believing it is on the wrong track. Given the centrality of support for Israel in US foreign policy, Gaza is emerging as one of the decisive factors in the electoral process.

Among Muslim American voters, who make up a substantial portion of the electorate in several battleground states, Gaza has become a defining issue, driving them toward third-party candidates or, in some cases, toward abstaining from voting altogether.

Potential Impact on Swing States

With their significant presence in swing states, where the difference between the top two candidates is often minimal, Muslim voters can impact the outcome of the 2024 election. States such as Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Minnesota, where Muslim populations have been growing, are seen as potential tipping points in the race for the White House.

Hassan Abdel Salam, founder of the "Abandon Biden" movement, emphasized that winning a few swing states is key to securing the presidency and noted that it is in these states where Muslim voters can make a difference. Robert McCaw, government affairs director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), echoed these sentiments, highlighting that more Muslims are supporting third-party candidates this election cycle than ever before. He said Muslim voters in these swing states have the potential to tip the balance.

Despite this potential, many Muslim voters remain undecided or are considering abstaining from voting altogether. Abdul Basith Basheer, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of North Carolina, said many Muslim voters are so frustrated with both parties' stances on Gaza that they are contemplating sitting out the election as a form of protest.

Third-Party Candidates Gain Support

Frustration with both major political parties has led to increased support for third-party candidates, particularly those who have taken strong stances on the Gaza issue. Jill Stein, the Green Party's presidential candidate, and Cornel West, running for the People's Party, have both spoken out against US military aid to Israel and called for accountability in the Gaza conflict.

Omar Suleiman, president of the Dallas-based Yaqeen Institute, noted that many Muslim Americans are disillusioned with Biden and the Democrats and are looking to third-party candidates as an alternative. Stating that many Muslim voters feel let down by both major parties, Suleiman said third-party candidates addressing Gaza and Palestine head-on are more appealing to Muslim voters.

Mobilization Among Muslim Voters

Muslim voters are increasingly organizing to express their frustration with US policy on Gaza. The "Abandon Biden" movement, which opposes incumbent President Joe Biden's handling of the conflict, has gained traction. Activists argue that both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have not done enough to secure a cease-fire or push back against Israel's military actions in Gaza.

Holding Biden and Harris accountable, the movement aims to ensure they can no longer ignore the conflict, said Abdel Salam. He and other activists hope their efforts will lead to a re-evaluation of US policy in the region and influence both Democratic and Republican parties by demonstrating the electoral power of the Muslim American community.

The movement recently changed its name to "Abandon Harris" following her candidacy. Beyond the ballot box, Muslim American activists have been organizing protests and lobbying efforts around the Gaza issue. In the weeks following the latest escalation in the Gaza conflict, activists gathered outside the US Capitol, calling for a permanent cease-fire and an embargo on arms sales to Israel. The protests, which lasted four days, featured prominent lawmakers such as Representatives Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, who voiced their support for a cease-fire.

Chanting "No more bombs," the protesters urged Congress to take immediate action to stop the violence in Gaza. Their demands include an end to US military aid to Israel and greater accountability for human rights violations in the region.

With the election nearing, both major political parties face increasing pressure to address the concerns of Muslim American voters, particularly on the issue of Gaza, as they seek to secure votes in the nation's most contested states.

*Writing by Yasin Gungor